Come Trade Against Chatbots
March 22, 2026
Calling all AI maximalists: bathe in the glory of a chatbot unchained, free to profit off the meager minds of humans. Calling all AI minimalists: come steal money from an LLM. But first: can ChatGPT predict the future?
AI Forecasting
Musk said it in 2024: the right metric for intelligence is the ability to predict the future. Now, that’s probably mostly wrong, if for no other reason than that intelligence resists codification. But it’s definitely not all wrong. If AI is really so smart, it should be able to tell me not just what’s already happened, but what will. And in November, the folks at Bridgewater helped show that it sort of can. They “achiev[ed] performance equal to human superforecasts” but “underperform[ed] market consensus” on a benchmark of liquid prediction markets. Not bad.